《黑天鵝效應：如何及早發現最不可能發生但總是發生的事》（）是一本由納西姆·尼可拉斯·塔雷伯所著的2007年書籍，該書關於隨機和不確定性。其典故來自當歐洲人首次接觸到黑天鵝所引發的衝擊而命名。塔雷伯稱為黑天鵝效應。
參考資料
參考文獻
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參見
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外部連結
- [http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com Author's website]
- [http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/glossary.pdf Black Swan Glossary]
- [https://web.archive.org/web/20081221082332/http://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/teaching%20and%20posters/MT07/LudicFallacy.ppt Slideshow lecture explaining the Ludic Fallacy with clarity By Peter Taylor of Oxford University].
- [http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2007/04/taleb_on_black.html Nassim Taleb podcast interview on The Black Swan].
- [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BDbuJtAiABA YouTube Video Explanation]
- Will Davies (2007) [http://www.oxonianreview.org/wp/all-in-a-flap-beware-unknown-unknowns/ 'All in a Flap: Beware of Unknown Unknowns'], review of The Black Swan in the **'.
[http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/Nassi After Words interview with Taleb on The Black Swan*, September 22, 2007]
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